Change Country
Welcome to DenmarkWelcome
Please read the important information below before continuing to our website

Please read the important information below before continuing to our website.  

By clicking on your client type to enter the website, you are confirming that you have read and understood the important information that is contained below, and you accept the terms of the Privacy and Cookies policy.

THIS WEBSITE IS AIMED AT PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS IN DENMARK

This website is published by Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), a French asset management company approved by the AMF (17 place de la Bourse 75082 Paris Cedex 02) under the UCITS (2009/65/EC) and AIFM (2011/31/EU) directives.

The website is hosted by on Microsoft Azure servers.

This website is subject to French and Danish law.

 

A professional client is a client that is either a per se professional client or an elective professional client (Note article 4 (1) 12 of Mifid )

Marketing Restrictions and Implications

 

Lyxor UCITS compliant Exchange Traded Funds (Lyxor UCITS ETFs) referred to on this website are open ended mutual investment funds (i) established under the French law and approved by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (the French Financial Markets Authority), or (ii) established under the Luxembourg law and approved by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (the Luxembourg Financial Supervisory Committee). Most, , of the protections provided by the Danish regulatory system generally and for funds authorised in Denmark do not apply to these exchange traded funds (ETFs).

 

This website is exclusively intended for persons who are not "US persons", as such term is defined in Regulation S or the US Securities Act 1933, as amended, and who are not physically present in the US. This website does not constitute an offer or an invitation to purchase any securities in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such offer or invitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Potential users of this website are requested to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions.

 

Index Replication Process

 

Lyxor UCITS ETFs follow both physical and synthetic index replication process.

 

However, most Lyxor UCITS ETFs follow synthetic replication process. This consists of entering into a derivative transaction (a ‘Performance Swap’, as defined below) with a counterparty that provides complete and effective exposure to its benchmark index. Lyxor has adopted this methodology in order to minimise tracking error, optimise transaction costs and reduce operational risks.

 

A Performance Swap is a contractual agreement which is negotiated over-the-counter (OTC) between two parties: the Lyxor UCITS ETF and its counterparty. From a risk perspective, each Performance Swap ranks equally with other senior unsecured obligations of the counterparty, such as common bonds (i.e., same rights to payments). In the Performance Swap, the counterparty of the Lyxor UCITS ETF commits to pay the Lyxor UCITS ETF a variable return based on a pre-determined benchmark index, instead of a fixed stream of income (as in bonds). At the same time, the counterparty will receive from the Lyxor UCITS ETF the performance and any related revenues generated by the basket's assets (excluding the value of the Performance Swap) held by the Lyxor UCITS ETF. Information provided on individual ETFs includes data on the basket relating to the ETF and the percentage value of the basket represented by each asset. The information is relevant to the closing values on the date given. 

 

Investment Risks

 

The Lyxor UCITS ETFs described on this website are not suitable for everyone. Investors' capital is at risk. Investors should not deal in this product unless they understand, having obtained independent professional advice where necessary, its nature, terms and conditions, and the extent of their exposure to risk. The value of the product can go down as well as up and can be subject to volatility due to factors such as price changes in the underlying instrument and interest rates. If a fund is quoted in a different currency to the index, currency risks exist.

 

Prior to any investment in any Lyxor UCITS ETF, you should make your own appraisal of the risks from a financial, legal and tax perspective, without relying exclusively on the information provided by us. We recommend that you consult your own independent professional advisors (including legal, tax, financial or accounting advisors, as appropriate).

 

Specific Risks

 

·         Capital at Risk. ETFs are tracking instruments: Their risk profile is similar to a direct investment in the Benchmark Index. Investors’ capital is fully at risk and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Investments are not covered by the provisions of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (“FSCS”), or any similar scheme.

·         Counterparty Risk. Investors may be exposed to risks resulting from the use of an OTC Swap with Societe Generale. Physical ETFs may have Counterparty Risk resulting from the use of a Securities Lending Programme.

·         Currency Risk. ETFs may be exposed to currency risk if the ETF or Benchmark Index holdings are denominated in a currency different to that of the Benchmark Index they are tracking. This means that exchange rate fluctuations could have a negative or positive effect on returns.

·         Replication Risk. ETFs are designed to replicate the performance of the Benchmark Index. Unexpected events relating to the constituents of the Benchmark Index may impact the Index provider’s ability to calculate the Benchmark Index, which may affect the ETF’s ability to replicate the Benchmark Index efficiently. This may create Tracking Error in the ETF.

·         Underlying Risk. The Benchmark Index of a Lyxor ETF may be complex and volatile. When investing in commodities, the Benchmark Index is calculated with reference to commodity futures contracts which can expose investors to risks related to the cost of carry and transportation. ETFs exposed to Emerging Markets carry a greater risk of potential loss than investment in Developed Markets as they are exposed to a wide range of unpredictable Emerging Market risks.

·         Liquidity Risk. On-exchange liquidity may be limited as a result of a suspension in the underlying market represented by the Benchmark Index tracked by the ETF; a failure in the systems of one of the relevant stock exchanges, Societe Generale or other Market Maker systems; or an abnormal trading situation or event. 

 

The securities can be neither offered in nor transferred to the United States.

 

Tax

 

Any statement in relation to tax, where made, is generic and non-exhaustive and is based on our understanding of the laws and practice in force as of the date of this document and is subject to any changes in law and practice and the interpretation and application thereof, which changes could be made with retroactive effect. Any such statement must not be construed as tax advice and must not be relied upon. The tax treatment of investments will, inter alia, depend on an individual’s circumstances. Investors must consult with an appropriate professional tax adviser to ascertain for themselves the taxation consequences of acquiring, holding and/or disposing of any investments mentioned on this website. 

Further information on the risk factors are available in the [Risk Warning – link to risk page] section of the website.

 

Any fund prospectus and supplements are available at www.lyxoretf.dk. Information given about the past performance of the funds is no guarantee of future performance. No investment decision should be taken without reading the fund prospectus and any fund supplement of the fund concerned.

 

Although the content of the website is based upon information that LIAM consider reliable or comes from sources that LIAM consider reliable, LIAM have not verified such information. Lyxor make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of any information.  Any reproduction, disclosure or dissemination of the materials available on the website is prohibited.

 

Cookies

This website uses cookies to make the website work or improve your user experience. Cookies are small text files that are saved on your computer or device, which are used for several purposes such as detecting preferences and improving site navigation. By continuing to use this website you consent for cookies to be used. For more details, including how to amend your preferences, please read our [Cookies Policy] link to privacy & cookie page.

By clicking on your client type to enter the website, you shall be deemed to have represented to us that you are not a U.S. person and that you are not located in the United States of America, its territories and possessions, and any State of the United States of America and that you are authorised to receive the information to and on this website.

August, 2015

 

 

 

I CONFIRM THAT I HAVE READ AND UNDERSTOOD THE IMPORTANT INFORMATION THAT IS CONTAINED ABOVE AND ACCEPT THE TERMS OF THE PRIVACY AND COOKIES POLICY.

16 Dec 2019

What’s going to move equity markets in 2020?

Another year has flown by, and what a year it’s been for equity markets. After a strong start to 2019, performance was affected again by political uncertainties around the world. Debates continue on whether we will see the fourth mini-cycle since 2009, or a mild recession in the US. Looking ahead to 2020, the key market drivers will be any de-escalation of the US-China tariff war, Brexit progress, and a possible mild economic upturn. Appetite for ESG investments, regardless of regional equity allocation, will also likely remain strong.  

Does ESG mean choosing principles over performance?

US: Economic growth in the election year ahead 

As we covered last week, we believe US economic growth will hold in 2020. Downside risks may be more prevalent in H2 during the US presidential election campaign.

In our view, the S&P 500 is likely to remain range-bound from here, with limited downside risks. US capex would benefit from diminishing trade tensions, favouring productivity gains. The anticipated cyclical upturn in H1 should act as a support for domestic equities.

However, margins will likely continue to erode over the year and we expect a slowdown in EPS growth to low single digits at around 3% in 2020. There is concentration risk within the S&P 500, too, as the top 10 stocks now represent close to 25% of the index’s market capitalisation.

History tells that US equity performance is usually positive in an election year. Yet we maintain a neutral stance on the market. Valuations may be vulnerable to a Democratic win, as this would likely lead to political measures more in favour of workers and consumers than shareholders. We also find the valuations of other developed markets more attractive. 

Europe: Recent outperformance should continue in 2020 

In Europe, sluggish economic activity has been a drag on EPS growth. However, we may have passed the worst – a cyclical upturn looks on the cards. The probability of a no-deal UK Brexit scenario has considerably reduced, leaving Europe less at risk from a severe negative growth shock. We believe the recent outperformance of value stocks that has started in recent months will continue in the year ahead.   

As previously outlined in our blog on European equities, valuations and positioning remain quite extreme in Europe compared to historical standards. Our valuation models based on cyclically-adjusted metrics suggest European markets can deliver returns around 7-8% annualised over the next five years (6-7% is normal). Shorter term, a mild cyclical upswing along with fiscal and monetary policy accommodation would certainly act as a support. We maintain our preference for cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary and industrials. 

In the UK, fiscal policy should significantly expand to weather some of the negative effects on growth from Brexit. More domestic-oriented UK corporates would benefit from fiscal expansion vs large caps. Large caps will be also more sensitive to a stronger GBP.

Japan: Not too late to buy 

In Japan, fiscal policy has already become more expansionary despite the sales tax hike in October 2019 – and we expect this to continue. Policy accommodation and the market rotation to value stocks have been supportive factors for Japanese equity performance in the second half of 2019. 

Looking ahead, we believe Japanese equities have plenty of scope to provide further strong returns over the longer term, as they still look cheap on a cyclically-adjusted basis. The cyclically-adjusted dividend yield is currently around 1.5%, a level that has historically been consistent with future annualised returns of 13–15% (pre-dividends). Additionally, a lower level of equity-FX correlation suggests that a mild JPY upside would be manageable. The market also provides diversification benefits for Europe- or US-heavy portfolios.

EM: Selectivity will be key

Global liquidity conditions are set to remain supportive in 2020 and we expect the EM-DM growth gap to support EM equity performance, valuations and flows.

In Asia, we expect the 4Q cyclical upturn to extend into the first half of 2020. The EPS cycle, led by northeast Asia, is recovering. The context remains less favourable for the ASEAN markets of southeast Asia, amid sluggish growth and stalling momentum on reforms. In China, we expect additional stimulus measures to be implemented over the first half of the year. This should act as a support to the local equity market with room for higher margins and multiple expansions. However, we suspect that trade tensions will resume eventually in the second half of the year, putting a lid on local equity performance.

In Latin America, a rebound in Brazil’s GDP growth is expected while a little room for monetary policy easing remains. This should provide some support for Brazilian equities, our preferred market in the region.

Finally, a large fiscal stimulus in Germany would benefit eastern European countries (Slovakia and Slovenia in particular). One way to take advantage of fiscal easing in Germany is to get exposure to EU Europe equity markets (ex-Russia).

Overall, we believe selectivity will remain key in EM equities portfolio allocation over the year ahead. Take a look at our joint blog with MSCI to learn more on EM equity portfolio construction.

That’s it from us for this year. Thanks for reading and all the best for the festive season!

Risk Warning

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU. These products comply with the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EC). Société Générale and Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM) recommend that investors read carefully the “investment risks” section of the product’s documentation (prospectus and KIID). The prospectus and KIID are available free of charge on www.lyxoretf.com, and upon request to client-services-etf@lyxor.com.

Except for the United-Kingdom, where this communication is issued in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658, this communication is issued by Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), a French management company authorized by the Autorité des marchés financiers and placed under the regulations of the UCITS (2014/91/EU) and AIFM (2011/61/EU) Directives. Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (the French Prudential Control Authority).

The products mentioned are the object of market-making contracts, the purpose of which is to ensure the liquidity of the products on the London Stock Exchange, assuming normal market conditions and normally functioning computer systems. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.lyxoretf.com. In addition, the indicative net asset value is published on the Reuters and Bloomberg pages of the product, and might also be mentioned on the websites of the stock exchanges where the product is listed.

Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that it is authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This material is of a commercial nature and not a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor Asset Management (together with its affiliates, Lyxor AM) or any of their respective subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.

Research disclaimer

Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

Connect with us on linkedin